Golubovsky Dmitry Viktorovich Biography

There is a cold war between them, and this is the main front in the world. And Ukraine and Russia are just a showdown that distracts attention from the main front. Plus, this is a pressure on Russia so that it keeps neutral in this war. Therefore, I believe that war can begin anywhere, but not between Kiev and Moscow, ”says Dmitry Golubovsky, an analyst with Golden Mint.

About how the Germans built the fourth Reich with the help of banks, not tanks, what the next move will make the English queen, why coffee and whiskey are more profitable than shares and whether the world will go into virtual reality after 7 years, Golubovsky told in an interview with Business Online. In your opinion, is there any other explanation except geopolitics?

I believe that geopolitics in this case is even secondary. There are fundamental things that would still lead the market to where it is now, but not so sharply. Firstly, the Central Bank sharply twisted the nuts, raising the bets, which is why the dividend profitability became not as attractive as it was before. What is the point of buying Sberbank shares with a yield of 9 percent if I am for OFZ federal loan bonds - approx.

Even if sanctions are imposed against OFZ, the state will pay me anyway. And if the sanctions are introduced against Sberbank, then his shares will fly another 30 percent lower. A lot of non -professionals came to our stock market. In the past two years, an outflow of money from deposits has been recorded, since the rate on them was significantly lower than inflation.

Therefore, people decided that they could earn money. The idea is working. But it was good when the Central Bank rate was 6 percent, for example, and the dividend yield of Gazprom was drawn around 10 percent now, however, already 14 percent. But when the Central Bank rate is expected 9.5 percent, this is not so good proportion, this is not almost twice as high. So people ran into the stock market, as it always happens, at his peak.

And now his drawdown is around 20 percent. People tried to catch some hesitation, guided by the messages of telegram channels. Now so many unofficial financial advisers have divorced who say that they need to buy. In fact, if you listen to everything that is advised to you, you will quickly lose money, because they are advised incorrectly, and your psyche will not stand the constant need to respond to some things.

We tried to averaged in December, received Margin Call in the morning. Remember, was Flash Crash? They tried to averaged the second collapse in January. And now there will be a third attempt to ransom the Russian market. I return to fundamental factors why you should not do it. The Central Bank rate will continue to grow. Will there be a two -digit number?

And it can go if the Fed begins to really do what he is talking about. Following them, the bets will be raised by the Bank of England and other centers. The ECB European Central Bank in the second half of the year will also be forced to pull up because global inflation is promoted, the rates are negative, which have never been. Never before the real bet in America has gone so far into a minus.

This is one of the reasons why he fell and we rolled away from those maximums that were achieved at the beginning of the year. If you look at the Brazilian Bivespa, the country is similar to Russia in foreign trade and risk level, it fell even before the RTS index. And the Chinese market also collapsed very cool. But there they pressed the regulatory requirements.

Plus, from the second half of last year, credit risks began to grow in China, the Chinese economy is cooling. In the first half of this year, a crisis of municipal debts is very likely. To serve this debt load, growth rates should be 5 percent, and now in a number of provinces there is already zero percent. In an interview with the year, you said that China committed coronavirus and will drag the entire world economy forward.

China was the first to jump out of the pandemic and dragged the world economy for two years on the money of the Fed: China worked, the Americans paid. There they distributed a huge amount of money to the people, and China supplied goods. On this we rode. And they came to the fact that America stopped dragging with money, and China - real growth. This tandem stalled.

Moreover, colossal political contradictions have accumulated in it. It is enough to mention that two American aircraft carriers are in the Taiwan Strait, a Taiwanese operation is seriously discussed, which, according to the Americans, can go through analogy with the Crimean. The fact is that in Taiwan there are enough people who are supporters of unification with China. Moreover, the Prochita Party controls the capital.

The political situation in China is such that economic difficulties can be resolved through a small victorious war. Moreover, this year should be re -elected Xi Jinping, and against the background of the economic crisis, this will be very difficult. But, if he turns out to be the winner and unification of China, he will retain his power without any problems and expand it. He already crushed the Komsomol elite, defeated Hong Kong, the opposition was crushed.But this is an illusion of stability, because the economy remains the economy.

A large folk protest is ripening in China. Moreover, Xi Jinping last year subsided coal crises. In general, in China, the domestic political cuisine is very complicated. There, part of the provinces is controlled by the army, part of the Komsomol. There is a cruel struggle for power against the background of the fact that the economy is inhibited. The Central Bank is trying to stop braking, softens monetary policy.

But it seems to me that his freedom of maneuver is also limited, because real inflation in China is two -digit. And the fact that Chinese statistics draw 5 percent is a lie. In fact, inflation in China is the same as in Russia. And with us, if you evaluate the shops of stores over the past year, there were 12-15 percent - real consumer inflation on mass demand goods, if not averaging bread with a yacht.

The same thing in China. Plus, in a number of regions, coal deficiency that is heated. Everything I say applies to stock markets. There is a Chinese risk, there is a percentage risk: a short -term dollar profitability has sharply flew up to tightening monetary policy. Accordingly, the American market fell. And if the flagship market is falling, then with what fright do you expect that the Russian will be restored?

Oil prices rose to $ 90 per barrel only at geopolitical risks. Also, oil grew on virtual Russian-Ukrainian risks. They take off how the echelons of Russian troops go, they discuss in Telegram, British planes are being landed in Kyiv, and on British TV they show videos how the country supplies weapons. I believe that war can begin anywhere, but not there. In the Middle East, in the Taiwan Strait, in Burma-somewhere fucking in the near future.

But this will not be the Russian-Ukrainian border, where I would wait for the discharge. The maximum that can happen there is the formal recognition of the DPR and LPR by Russia and the official entry of a limited contingent to support and guaranteed protection of these territories from Ukrainian provocations. But this will not entail any strict sanctions. Joe Biden himself made it clear by saying an ambiguous phrase that the limited invasion of Russia will lead to limited sanctions.

If we talk about sanctions, the same Germans categorically for the fact that Russian oil and gas exports and payments do not suffer in any way. So even if the Americans introduce any sanctions on the corps accounts of Russian banks, then Europe will not introduce them. This will simply lead to the final rejection of the dollar in the calculations. If we talk about dollars in the reserves of the Central Bank, then there are almost no them there.

The Central Bank began to leave the dollars immediately after the negotiations of Vladimir Putin and Biden, which took place in June. I already said then to not be seduced by the results of negotiations.

If Russia sells trembris, this means that there will be no development of relations, and people, obviously, are preparing for exacerbation. Bayden then said that the United States is giving six months to look at the behavior of Russia, and will draw conclusions. Just during this time, they left the dollars and prepared for the current situation. But I admit the flight to the area 90 ” - you want to say that the Central Bank does not have a cash of billions of dollars?

I do not know the exact structure of the reserves of the Central Bank, it does not publish them with a breakdown in currencies. And publishes a share of gold and currency in general, which is. But I know that the dollar was actively sold for the last six months. So the stock market has collapsed and he does not have growth prospects, if we talk about the dollar index of RTS.

The MICEX index can grow if the ruble is further devalued. But I do not believe in the devaluation of the ruble further than 80 rubles per dollar. It is possible that if there is an increase in geopolitical risks, plus interest shock from America if the Fed abruptly begins to increase the rate and immediately charge a plus of 0.5 percent in March and publishes a plan for a sharp reduction in balance, I admit to the area but then the Central Bank will stand in the way of devaluation.